Methodology
Version v1 · Published August 2026 · Changelog
1. What Ziplicit measures
Ziplicit measures market conditions — not business outcomes. A Ziplicit score classifies current market conditions against a published methodology, the same way a credit score classifies borrower risk or a health inspection grade classifies kitchen conditions. A score of 74 means the market conditions in that ZIP code score in the Favorable range on these specific criteria, at the time of the data pull. It does not predict whether any particular business will succeed. The score is deterministic: the same inputs always produce the same score, with no language model in the scoring path.
2. Coverage
We can score 0 of ~41,700 US ZIP codes.
The ZIPs we cannot score fall into these categories:
- · No Census ZCTA match: 0
- · Population under 500: 0
- · PO box or military ZIP: 0
A ZIP that cannot be scored returns an insufficient data state — never a fabricated score. Rural ZIPs with fewer than 3 competitors produce wider confidence intervals, noted on the report.
3. The 7 criteria
Score bands are published and applied uniformly:
| Score | Label |
|---|---|
| 80–100 | Strong market conditions |
| 65–79 | Favorable market conditions |
| 50–64 | Mixed market conditions |
| 35–49 | Challenging market conditions |
| 0–34 | Poor market conditions |
Saturation Index
25 pointsRatio of existing competitors per 10,000 households versus the national median for the category. A lower ratio means less competition.
Source: Overture Maps places dataset + US Census ZCTA household counts
License: Overture Maps — Apache 2.0; Census — public domain
Known limitation: Mobile operators with no physical storefront are undercounted in Overture. Google Places live data supplements at report time.
Quality Gap
20 pointsAverage star rating and review count of existing competitors versus national medians. Lower incumbent quality creates more room for a new entrant.
Source: Google Maps Platform — live at report time, never warehoused
License: Google Maps Platform — Google's terms apply. Attribution required. Powered by Google.
Known limitation: Reflects ratings at the moment of report generation. Businesses with fewer than 5 reviews are excluded from the average.
Spend Capacity per Competitor
20 pointsEstimated annual household spend on the category divided by the number of existing competitors in the ZCTA.
Source: US Census Bureau ACS 5-year estimates — household income and count
License: Public domain
Known limitation: Household spend is estimated from income data using BLS Consumer Expenditure Survey category shares. Tagged estimated.
Demand Signal
15 pointsSearch volume for category keywords in the metro area versus the national baseline. Measures whether people in this area actively search for this service.
Source: Third-party search demand API
License: Provider terms apply
Known limitation: Demand is measured at metro level, not ZIP level. All demand signal values are tagged estimated.
Barrier to Entry
10 pointsConcentration of large establishments (5+ employees) that have structural advantages — equipment, staff, brand — over a new solo operator.
Source: US Census ZBP establishment size distribution
License: Public domain
Known limitation: New business filing data is currently available for select US states. Coverage expanding quarterly. All other scoring criteria cover all 41,700 US ZIP codes.
Growth Trend
10 points3-year household count and median income growth rate in the ZCTA. Growing markets absorb new entrants more easily.
Source: US Census ACS 5-year estimates — two survey cohorts compared
License: Public domain
Known limitation: ACS 5-year estimates are the demographic gold standard for small-area data, but carry a typical 2-year publication lag. Growth rates in very small ZCTAs carry high margins of error.
New Business Filings
0 points (signal only)Number of new business filings in the category within the last 90 days. Used as a leading indicator, not weighted in the score in phase 1.
Source: State business registration data — rolling 30-day window
License: Public record
Known limitation: New business filing data is currently available for select US states. Coverage expanding quarterly. All other scoring criteria cover all 41,700 US ZIP codes.
4. Data sources
| Source | Release | License |
|---|---|---|
| Overture Maps | Most recent release available | Apache 2.0 |
| Open-licensed commercial POI data | Most recent release available | Apache 2.0 |
| US Census Bureau ACS | Most recent release available | Public domain |
| US Census ZBP | Most recent release available | Public domain |
| Bureau of Labor Statistics CEX | Most recent release available | Public domain |
| State business registration data | Rolling 30-day window | Public record |
| HUD ZIP-ZCTA crosswalk | Most recent release available | Public domain |
| Google Maps Platform | Live | Google's terms apply |
| Third-party search demand API | Live | Provider terms apply |
5. Known limitations
- ·Mobile operators with no storefront are undercounted in Overture. Google Places live call supplements at report time, but some mobile-only operators still miss.
- ·Rural ZIPs with sparse data produce wide confidence intervals. A lower-confidence badge is shown on affected reports.
- ·Demand signal is metro-level, not ZIP-level. Always tagged estimated. A high-demand metro does not guarantee demand in every ZIP within it.
- ·New business filing data is currently available for select US states. Coverage expanding quarterly. All other scoring criteria cover all 41,700 US ZIP codes.
- ·Operating status in Overture is nearly always null.Closed businesses cannot be filtered from Overture data alone. Google Places review counts act as a proxy for open status.
6. Confidence badges
Every report displays an assumed percentage — the share of data points tagged assumed rather than sourced or estimated. Three tags apply to every data point:
Directly observed in a named dataset. Example: 14 competitors found in Overture for ZIP 53202.
Derived from sourced data using a published formula or proxy. Example: household spend estimated from Census income × BLS expenditure share.
No data available for this ZIP or category. A national or state-level default is used. High assumed percentages indicate lower confidence and are flagged on the report.
The assumed percentage is calculated as: (number of assumed data points) ÷ (total data points) × 100. Displayed on every report above the score.
7. Disclaimer
Ziplicit reports market conditions from public data sources. This is research, not business advice. Scores describe current market conditions, not future outcomes. You are responsible for your own business decisions.
8. Contact
For data gap requests, corrections, or verified discrepancies: help@ziplicit.com
We review every reported discrepancy. Three reports of a wrong score in the same category in the same quarter trigger a model audit.